As of Feb. 13, 2025
As Thrivent’s chief financial and investment officer, I am pleased to report that 2024 was a strong year of financial performance for our organization. While we report results as sales and revenue to demonstrate our strong business performance, it’s important to note that each and every financial product that comprises a client’s financial strategy serves a much deeper role in fulfilling our purpose and, ultimately, enabling you to live lives of service and faith.
Our financial performance in 2024 was outstanding across various metrics. We achieved record revenues of $12 billion in 2024* while also maintaining diligent expense management, which contributed to our strong earnings. Total sales were 16% higher than 2023, primarily driven by robust fixed annuity deposits, as our clients were able to lock in attractive rates on long-term solutions.
One of the key indicators of our long-term financial strength is our capital position, which remained exceptionally strong at the end of 2024. Our adjusted surplus grew by 3%, ending the year at an all-time high of $17.8 billion*. This strong surplus position enabled us to continue funding additional dividends and other policy enhancements at record levels. In 2024, we returned $531 million in value to our clients through dividends and other enhancements, more than an 80% increase since 2022. It’s our privilege to be able to deliver this value to you based on our long-term strength, stability and disciplined financial management.
We also saw significant growth in assets under management/advisement, which increased by 8% to an all-time high of $194 billion* due to strong positive net inflows and market appreciation. All general account fixed-income portfolios outperformed their one-year benchmarks, further solidifying our strong capital position.
Looking ahead, we are excited about our future growth opportunities. In 2024, we received the necessary regulatory approvals to form Thrivent Bank, which will allow us to expand our reach and introduce our unique perspective to more people who believe that money is a tool, not a goal. We intend to build deep relationships with these clients, meeting their evolving financial needs throughout their lifetimes.
2024 at a glance
Macroeconomic outlook for 2025
As I scan the macroeconomic environment in 2025, I see a landscape that presents both opportunities and challenges. The economy has shown remarkable resilience, but risks remain on both sides of the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) dual mandate of full employment and stable prices. Economic data continues to send mixed signals, with areas of both strength and weakness.
A ‘three-peat’ of +20% market returns is very rare
The S&P 500 index delivered an impressive return of over 23% in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of +20% returns. This has only happened four times since 1930, with the last instance in the mid- to late-1990s. Interestingly, during that period, markets saw four years in a row of strong market returns, and it was when the Fed navigated a soft landing for the economy.
Inflation appears to be stickier than anticipated
Inflation has decreased significantly from its peak in 2022 and is nearing the Fed’s 2% target. However, it has been more persistent recently. Price levels remain approximately 36% higher than pre-pandemic levels, with certain areas particularly important to consumers (such as food, energy and used cars) experiencing price reacceleration.
While we anticipate further progress on inflation, the journey is likely to be uneven and slow.
Interest rate volatility is emerging
Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025 have diminished due to rising inflation concerns and stronger projected economic growth. The market currently anticipates just over one 0.25% rate reduction through 2025, ending the year around 4%. This is a significant shift from early October 2024, when the market expected about 4.5 cuts.
If we look back at history to see how markets behave during a variety of interest rate environments, we see that stock market volatility often follows interest rate volatility. The market’s performance in 2024 resembled 2017, with over 20% gains and historically low volatility. However, 2018 followed with high volatility driven by interest rate fluctuations.
Be prepared for market volatility
In a December interview with the Minnesota Star Tribune, I went on record and predicted that the S&P 500 Index will end 2025 about 6% higher than it was at the end of 2024. But I also said this growth would come with ongoing volatility due to the current uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s interest rate path.
The best way to prepare for market volatility is not to be surprised by it. Have a conversation with your financial advisor and be sure you understand how your current financial strategy is positioned to meet your long-term goals. Remember, too, that times of volatility can be potential opportunities, depending on your financial goals.
As an asset management team, we are well positioned to not only navigate but also capitalize on market opportunities to further Thrivent’s financial strength and deliver value to you, our clients. Thank you for being part of our organization and for trusting us to guide you along the way.
David Royal is executive vice president and chief financial & investment officer at Thrivent.
